Thursday, April 25, 2013

NFL Draft 2013: Day One Winners and Losers

Football is finally back, folks. And after watching the commish stumble on stage for a few hours making announcements, day one is wrapped up and in the books. We saw some strong picks from start to finish, a few head-scratchers in the middle, and a moving speech by Joe Andruzzi. I'm of the opinion that you can't really analyze how well a draft went until opening day rosters are compiled, but here's a dirty take on my day one winners and losers:

First, the winners.

1. The Minnesota Vikings clobbered day one. They were barely a playoff team, riding the legs of Adrian Peterson past the final weekend. I still believe with all my heart that the Packers threw that last game to avoid having to play the Bears, but that's neither here nor there. They started the day with 2 first round picks and a ton of needs, and beginning with pick 23, improved substantially on both sides of the ball with three selections. I thought Sharrif Floyd out of Florida was the best DT in the draft and he fell to them; next they moved on Xavier Rhodes out of FSU who I had rated as the third best DB behind Dee Milliner and the Honey Badger; finally, they traded a king's ransom of probable bit players to New England to fill the glaring gap at WR with the Volunteer Cordarelle Patterson. I still think Christian Ponder is at his absolute best a second tier NFL QB but the Vikings addressed three huge needs at critical positions with total locks in this draft class. If they can get a competent LB, a two down DE, and a nickel corner on day two, they shouldn't need another impossible season from Mr. Peterson to make the playoffs in 2013. Just a decent season.

2. EJ Manuel did everything he could and was rewarded for it. I don't think the Bills reached on him. Florida State is quickly developing a pedigree for QBs, even if Christian Ponder has been underwhelming at times. The Bills definitely need some sure talent under center after the Harvard guy disappointed, and with the read-option in vogue, their ownership did the right thing here. The Bills still have huge holes all over the OL and at CB, and they could stand to get quality depth at the skill positions, but much like Ponder before him, EJ Manuel has to feel pretty good about the opportunity he's been given to really establish himself with a new coaching staff. I'm happy for him.

3. Bill Belichick found some spare picks to pick up some spare parts. There's not much to explain here. Belichick knows how to play the draft and fleece other franchises and turn their perceived strengths into weaknesses. He knows when to pounce. The Patriots started this weekend with a relative shortage of picks and when the opportunity came for Billy Boy to acquire a few more, he traded 1 possible starter for least 3 probable contributors. It stands out as a good move.

And now, the losers.

1. The New York Jets continue to confuse. That team has been in full blown rebuilding mode for a while now. They have holes all over both lines, the state of the locker room is in shambles, they just traded their best player, Coach Ryan is probably a lame duck, and QB Mark Sanchez is out of chances. I usually give free points to teams who can find a way to pick twice in the first round because that's double the ammunition to get potentially big-time contributors, but I feel like the Jets "missed" on both. They took the consensus best CB Dee Milliner in the draft at 9, and while it would have been a great pick for say the Panthers, or Chargers, the Jets really should have addressed their offensive line here with either the best rated OG in Chance Warmack or the next best rated OT in DJ Fluker, and it's no surprise both of those players immediately went after the Jets made their first pick. At 13, they took Richard Sheldon while both Star Lotulelei and Sharrif Floyd were available. I want to say I'm shocked but I'm not really shocked because this is just same old-same old from the Jets the last couple years. The picks aren't terrible bad, but how does this day one help that offense throw or run the ball any better? Their futility on offense is what's put them in this hole.

2. The Miami Dolphins are just trolling us at this point. It's pretty obvious they bit the Eagles' feint on Dion Jordan and moved up to beat Philly to him, but it was totally unnecessary. Jordan is a great talent and all, but I'd put money down that even had Jordan been there at 4, Chip Kelly was sure as shit taking Lane Johnson. He addresses a way bigger need for Kelly and the offense he's trying to install. Considering the Dolphins gave up a pick to "steal" draft position on a player that was more hype down the stretch than solid established talent, I have to say Miami just looks silly. And after this offseason, with all the goofy contracts they've handed out, it's just more of the same.

3. The 2013 QB class is paying the price for GMs unwillingness to deal out of value. I've been saying it for years: just because you don't have a great QB right now doesn't mean you need to "waste" a first round pick on one. I think the league is finally getting it. I feel bad for Geno Smith, who was effectively embarrassed on national television by 30 NFL franchises, but the truth is, it's not surprising. 6 or 7 franchises have question marks at QB but not definite holes. 1 or 2 could have afforded to draft a QB in the first round but only one of them did. I mean, I'm more surprised that Eddie Lacy (or ANY runningback for that matter) didn't go in the first than I am Geno Smith still doesn't have a team. But considering how hot QBs are and have been since forever, it is a little telling that Geno and Barkley and Landry Jones and their outfit have been pushed back til day two or beyond. Again, good for you EJ Manuel.


I'll do another writeup after day two, tomorrow. I'm anticipating strong moves from the Raiders, Patriots, and Niners.

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